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More AilmentsI've been running since September--three times a week, alternating days with swimming, which I've been doing for longer.
Back to Grey and World War IStill reading.
Did the Allies also miss an opportunity?....now, some years after the mighty peace of 1919, the condition of Europe is sufficiently disappointing to make it interesting to imagine what the course of events might conceivably have been if the Allies and Germany in 1916 had told President Wilson that they were ready for the Conference he was prepared to summon. ....The terms were such as must have demonstrated the stultification and failure of Prussian militarism. Granted that militarists are incorrigible and would have desired to prepare a new war, would the German people have been so disillusioned about war as to depose militarism from control? ....if a Wilson peace in 1916 had brought real disillusionment about militarism, it would have been far better than what actually happened. Grey also spends a fair bit of time on the question whether Britain should accepted early offers from Greece to come into the war on the Allied side. Grey argues that unless Greece made substantial concessions to Greece and Bulgaria, the Greek entry into the war would surely have brought both Turkey and Bulgaria in on the side of Germany. Greece was not at all ready to make the concession that might placate Bulgaria. She was not going to risk war on the side of the Allies with a view to giving up territory. The consequences of accepting the Greek offer would have been to unite Turkey and Bulgaria even more actively; to annoy Russia (would have had to defend itself in the south, instead of concentrating on Germany to the west); to precipitate the very thing that our diplomacy was charged by our military authority to delay, namely, war with Turkey. At this point Grey gets back to Gallipoli. Of Churchill's two "escapades," Grey defends Antwerp as not "the mere madcap exploit of a passion for adventure, which it was for some time afterwards assumed to be"; he does not quite defend Gallipoli in the same way. Here he says the suffering of Gallipoli, in hindsight, made some people wish Greece had somehow come into the war earlier--forgetting the real situation at the time. What is stiking in all of this is that Grey presents Britain as almost helpless to do anything other than keep reinforcing the lines in France. At the mercey of the U.S. in one way, Germany and Russia in different ways. If still a giant, then a helpless giant. There's also good stuff on correspondence between Grey and Theodore Rossevelt, which I'll save for another post. Best Cheney LinesOK, maybe this is past its due date.
Go RaptorsThird straight win; sixth out of the last eight games. Brief Comment on the ShootingChatting with colleagues at work, I said perhaps the funniest comment so far is (from Hit and Run) that Cheney is like Claudine Longet. The big difference: Longet did the media thing properly, crying, "I don't know what happened! The gun went off, and Spider was dead!"
Western Chronology: Still Crazy After All These Years?It turns out it's possible--and stress, only possible--that the "official" dating of events from the Middle Ages and antiquity may be out by 500 to 1000 years.
"He analyzed about 50 calendars, none of which are in use any more," Daicu explains. While some eminent scientists such as Sir Isaac Newton and Johannas Kepler disagreed with some of his datings, Scalinger's chronology underlies the work of historians to this day. How then, can we arrive at accurate chronology? "One way of doing it is to use radio carbon dating (of documents), to use scientific dating in a scientific way: take many measurements, do statistical analysis and draw the right conclusions," he says. He is exasperated by the tendency he has noted of archaeologists and historians to use carbon dating only to support conventional chronology. "Historians discard measurements they don't like," he says. "I've talked to many historians and most trust the existing chronology. If you change the chronology, a complete new interpretation of documents is implied." It is possible, for example, that Julius Caesar lived roughly 1000 years ago, rather than 2000. This might help explain the appearance that it took 1000 years for Christianity to reach the point of schism between East and West, and another 500 for the Protestant Reformation. It may be that things happened much faster, or that there was constant (even more than church histories suggest) struggle and ferment about both doctrine and organization. This caught my eye because I recently picked up a "Creation" magazine in our public library--that is, a magazine devoted to defending the beginning of Genesis as literally true, and debunking evolution. (I really don't think this should be in a public library). There was an article about the Egyptian pharoahs which said the "official" chronology of Egypt doesn't match the Bible. However, there is some evidence that pharoahs might have overlapped in time, instead of there being only one at a time. (I forget whether the suggestion was that they ruled over different regions, or what). If a new chronology is devised, with overlapping pharoahs, there is a fit with the Bible. The archeologist who was featured specifically criticized the use of carbon dating only to confirm a chronology that is supposedly arrived at by other, reliable methods. Zakaria on the New Middle EastStanley Kurtz is correct: this piece by Fareed Zakaria in Newsweek is very thought-provoking. (via The Corner).
Give Bush his due. He has correctly and powerfully argued that blind assistance to the dictatorships of the Middle East was a policy that was producing repression and instability. But he has not yet found a way to genuinely assist in the promotion of political, economic and social reforms in the region. A large part of the problem is that the United States—and the West in general—are not seen as genuine well-wishers and allies of the peoples of these countries in their aspirations for a better life. We have stopped partnering with repressive Middle Eastern regimes, but we have not yet managed to forge a real partnership with Middle Eastern societies. Not an easy piece to summarize, but Zakaria says there is a difference between achieving democracy and liberalism. There is a real increase in democracy in the Mid East; unfortunately, it is bringing about some strange growths, smacking of Islamic fundamentalism and even support for terrorism. The West is learning that liberalism is harder, but more important, to achieve. According to Zakaria, Bush has done far more good than harm--it is his initiative that has brought democracy so far, and made it possible to build liberalism. If martyrs become mayors, they should be seen as merely human, and expected to produce results. Islamic societies may remain "non-Western" in important ways, but: "It is important that religious intolerance and antimodern attitudes not be treated as cultural variations that must be respected. Whether it is Hindu intolerance in India, anti-Semitism in Europe or Muslim bigotry in Saudi Arabia, the modern world rightly condemns them all as violating universal values." Zakaria thinks there is a way to manage this new world: "We should recognize how varied these groups are: some violent, others not, some truly anti-modern, others not—and work to divide rather than unite them." One mistake Bush has made, for example, is to link Chechen rebels to the people bombing London. All too often Bush has spoken as if any Moslems committing violence, anywhere, are "terrorists." Abramoff and ReidThe AP has said Harry Reid, Democratic leader in the Senate, has received "Abramoff-related" donations amounting to over $60,000.
Rick MercerI got to see the young or not so young man live at the University of Toronto.
Peggy Noonan Comes Through AgainI guess this is why she makes the big bucks at the WSJ:
Listen, I watched the funeral of Coretta Scott King for six hours Tuesday, from the pre-service commentary to the very last speech, and it was wonderful--spirited and moving, rousing and respectful, pugnacious and loving. The old lions of the great American civil rights movement of the 20th century were there, and standing tall. The old lionesses, too. There was preaching and speechifying and at the end I thought: This is how democracy ought to be, ought to look every day--full of the joy of argument, and marked by the moral certainty that here you can say what you think. There was nothing prissy, nothing sissy about it. A former president, a softly gray-haired and chronically dyspeptic gentleman who seems to have judged the world to be just barely deserving of his presence, pointedly insulted a sitting president who was, in fact, sitting right behind him. The Clintons unveiled their 2008 campaign. A rhyming preacher, one of the old lions, a man of warmth and stature, freely used the occasion to verbally bop the sitting president on the head. So what? This was the authentic sound of a vibrant democracy doing its thing. It was the exact opposite of the frightened and prissy attitude that if you draw a picture I don't like, I'll have to kill you. It was: We do free speech here. That funeral honored us, and the world could learn a lot from watching it. The U.S. government should send all six hours of it throughout the World Wide Web and to every country on earth, because it said more about who we are than any number of decorous U.N. speeches and formal diplomatic declarations. A moment for a distinction that must be made. Some have compared Mrs. King's funeral to the Paul Wellstone memorial. It was not like the Wellstone memorial, and you'd have to be as dim and false as Al Franken to say it was. The Wellstone memorial was marked not by joy but anger. It was at moments sour, even dark. There was famous booing. The King funeral was nothing like this. It was gracious, full of applause and cheers and amens. It was loving even when it was political. It had spirit, not rage. That's part of why it was beautiful.
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