Politics in Iraq 

Politics in Iraq

We're slowly getting a better sense of the case of characters.

Yahoo here, NYT here, LAT here.

Ibrahim al-Jaafari has been chosen as the preferred candidate for Prime Minister of the United Iraqi Alliance, the largest Shiite group in the recent election, which won about 51% of the seats in the new Assembly.

Dr. Jaafari, a physician, is the long-time leader of the Dawa Party, which is conspicuous for its commitment to basing law and politics on Sharia or Islamic law--or at least, ensuring that they are not inconsistent. Jaafari thus comes to sight as more of a "fundamentalist" than Ahmed Chalabi, who was also part of the Alliance, or Ayad Allawi, who was Interim Prime Minister, and whose own group won only about 15% of the vote.

Allawi says he will still campaign to be chosen Prime Minister under the new rules. First a President and two Vice-Presidents must be chosen by a two-thirds vote of the Assembly. Then these three individuals choose a Prime Minister--presumably one who can command a majority of the votes in the Assembly.

All three of these Shiite individuals, like many Kurdish leaders, have impeccable "anti-Saddam" credentials. There is some disagreement among them as to whether to de-Baathificize or not (Allawi perhaps being the most strongly opposed). Jaafari seems the most pious, or fundamentalist, or pro-Iran of the three. For one period in his life (during the Iran-Iraq war), he led raids against Iraqi forces from bases inside Iran.

Even before the election, he was evasive as to the extent to which he thinks law must be based on Sharia. All Shiite leaders now seem to be agreed on the need to give important positions in the new government both to Kurds and to Sunnis. Kurds have to be included simply to win a majority in the new Assembly; participation by Sunnis is presumably necessary for national unity and peace. (Will the Sunnis accept the Kurds getting Kirkuk? Are the Kurds already taking the city over, more or less peacefully?)

When asked point blank if he has close ties to the present mullahs of Iran, Jafaari says "This is just a widespread, mistaken belief." A bit reminiscent of the bail hearing for a mobster, where the prosecutor says: "the people request remand, your honour, Mr. Slickiano has well-known mob ties," and the defence lawyer jumps to his feet to say "alleged, your Honour."

Speaking of trouble with the law, Chalabi, now that he has lost out for Prime Minister, seems to be angling for a job as deputy prime minister in charge of finance and security. Hmmm.... The better to continue to destroy records that would prove his complicity in various crimes?

UPDATE: I posted some time ago on Allawi and Chalabi--they were rivals for money and influence in Washington, and for support for some bold anti-Saddam initiative in Iraq. They were each responsible for a "Bay of Goats"-type fiasco in the 90s.