The War and Analogies 

The War and Analogies

Analogies can demonstrate very lazy thinking. The new situation, which we all want to understand, is confusing, and we sense it would take a lot of study to say much with confidence. Saying that in some important respects it is analogous to a situation we know better--possibly because it is in the past, and has been more studied--can provide a tempting short-cut.

I for one am all for this short cut. I think this is the kind of thing that gives political scientists a bad reputation--for coming to conclusions about historical events without in-depth historical knowledge. Here goes anyway.

I have touched on analogies between the "War on Terror" and World War II, on the one hand, and between the present U.S. occupation of Iraq and either "Vietnam" or "Beirut" on the other.

Here are some analogies offered by people who are sympathetic to President Bush, but believe he may be getting into deeper trouble--yes, possibly even the q-word.

In the Spectator, Matthew Parris worries that the U.S. might be getting into a situation like post-1970s Northern Ireland or 1950s Algeria (where France was the colonial power). He thinks a truly popular colonial administrator can really help, and he even suggests Paddy Ashdown (now busy in Bosnia).

Jim Pinkerton worries that the U.S. may find Iraq becoming more and more like the West Bank and Gaza under Israeli occupation.

"In those two zones, the once mostly secular Arab population has been radicalized and Islamicized by 36 years of Israeli rule. And now, few believe there's a Palestinian majority yearning for peace with Israel; the occupied territories are a 3-million-person factory for the creation of suicide bombers."