Let's Hear It for the War
Maybe it's because I'm always drawn to the underdog (too many Walt Disney movies as a kid?), but I'm more impressed in recent days by arguments in favour of U.S. action in Iraq.
It does seem that the overall strategic situation, for the U.S., for the region, and for the West, has improved. Not only has Iraq been eliminated as a threat to any other country, but it seems to have been demonstrated that Iraq was almost unbelievably weak even before the invasion. This is something neither the pro-Bush side nor the anti-Bush side are willing to admit.
The anti-Bush side argued before the invasion that there would be a military quagmire because of the considerable Iraqi military forces, of all kinds. They also believed there were at least significant stores of WMDs, and they predicted that these would be used against Israel, the U.S., or the West. Now there is a tendency for Bush's critics, especially the Democratic presidential candidates, to say there is a terrible threat, but Bush has it wrong--it's somewhere else.
The pro-Bush side, of course, has not given up on finding WMDs and a link between Saddam and 9/11. (Instapundit on both points).
I don't think anyone has explained how it is possible that Saddam was as weak as he now appears to have been. In 1991 he had an air force, which he sent to another country for safekeeping. Where was it this time? (A few planes have been found buried--Instapundit quotes AP).
Clinton bombed Iraq in 1998, and he was certainly trying to take out facilities for making WMDs--but it seems even he is surprised that there is no trace of such things today. (Link from The Corner).
And what about the Republican Guard? Were they killed by surgical air strikes? Are a lot of them hiding among "loyalists"?
In any case, it seems that a one-time powerful Arab country, capable of threatening its neighbours (including Iran and Kuwait), simply doesn't pose any threat any more. And, contrary to some of the anti-Bush people, the dominoes are not falling in an anti-U.S. direction, but in a pro-U.S. direction. Seymour Hersh reports in the New Yorker that Bashar Assad, "leader" of Syria, gave the U.S. a lot of intelligence leading up to the Iraq war. True, he then decided he had to officially oppose the U.S. effort, but there have been indications that he has sought "back channel" access to U.S. decision makers, so that he can cooperate without antagonizing too many of his supporters. Even more remarkably, Hersh has interviewed Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, the community/charity/terrorist group centered in Lebanon (nominally under Syria's control). Nasrallah says it is now up to the Palestinians to negotiate a deal with Israel. "'Of course, it would bother us that Jerusalem goes to Israel.' I asked, 'But if there was a deal?' 'Let it happen,' he answered. 'I would not say O.K. I would say nothing.'" Link.
Update August 4: events are moving rapidly among the Palestinians. Sunday August 3, Arafat's Fatah stuck to its position that the truce with Israel, begun on June 29, continues (may have to click to "Fatah rejects Al Aqsa threat"), even though Al Aqsa (roughly speaking, the violent wing of Fatah) said on Saturday they will resume attacks; indeed there have been conflicting statements even on this point from Al Aqsa.
The Palestinian Authority has actually arrested 17 alleged terrorists, and negotiations are ongoing as to how to dispose of these individuals and continue the truce.
Meanwhile Hamas, also part of the truce, says they are running out of patience.
Progress in the classic "Middle East" issue--that is, Israel vs. the Palestinians, is always unpredictable. Maybe the two sides have simply come to their own decision that force was no longer working. Still, things have not gotten worse on this front as a result of Bush's actions, and his actions may actually have helped. Any president would regard that as a great accomplishment.
The mullahs in Iran seem to be in at least some trouble--and I think most sane people in the West are rooting for them to fall. (One headline reads: Iran might swap terrorists for help from U.S.). The Saudis are more and more exposed as the bankers of extremism and terrorism--they have been offering public denials of specific links to 9/11. This may be personally embarrassing to President Bush and his family, but the truth seems to be coming out. Reform is in the air--and the President gets at least part of the credit.
Where are the bugbears of yesteryear? No Arab country provided any significant support to the Palestinians in their most recent intifada--which may be one reason why they are now willing to negotiate. I believe the two Arab countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel--Jordan and Egypt--both maintained those relations.
The more or less pro-Western governments in Pakistan and Egypt have not been de-stabilized by recent events. Of course there are still terrorists in the world--perhaps there always will be. Can anyone be sure an attack like 9/11 can be "prevented"? I doubt it. The whole idea of a continued massive reaction to the terrible attacks on 9/11 may be an over-reaction--but politically, it is difficult for responsible people in the U.S. to do less than they are doing.
The Democrats are licking their lips at the prospect that Iraq itself will appear in 2004 to be an expensive fiasco. I don't understand myself why the U.S. won't invite the UN in--still a westernizing force, lots of expertise in peace-keeping as opposed to war-making, less likely to be shot at, or to cause a backlash. I for one hope the U.S. doesn't invite Turkey to get involved in a way that is harmful to the Kurds. Still, it seems a bit lame to say the President shouldn't be carrying on with this expensive difficult fight for freedom--there's another expensive difficult fight he should be carrying on. In a way this is how Republicans started their "Asia first" stuff in the 50s. Truman and the Democrats were obviously doing a superb job in Europe--strategically crucial in many ways. So all the Republicans could say was: what about Asia?
I'll add some links to this post later. Update: Done.
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