Persian Letters
Edward Luttwak wrote in the Globe and Mail yesterday that the success of the U.S. mission in Iraq depends to a certain extent on Iran. Both Syria and Iran are helping the insurgents--and, according to Luttwak, they no longer fear any retaliation from the U.S. for doing so.
There are two main Iranian factions, and they are working in different causes in Iraq: "... as often before, Iran's two governments have acted in contradictory ways: while the Revolutionary Guards under Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei have helped Mr. al-Sadr, President Mohammed Khatami and the official government support Ayatollah al-Sistani." Luttwak predicts that the moderates associated with Sistani will win, partly because they have more decisive support from Iran.
Today there are reports that the U.S. is actually using an Iranian official as an intermediary to negotiate with Sadr. (News here; comments by Atrios here and Kevin Drum here). This despite the fact that there is no official diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Iran, and there are concerns about securing the Iran-Iraq border. The involvement of Iran may have been requested by representatives of three Iraqi mullahs--including the famous Sistani.
It seems possible that there are two U.S. factions as well. The military may prefer to fight it out with Sadr's militia, even at the cost of civilian casualties, in order to remove one troublesome threat. Bremer and other civilians, on the other hand, may prefer diplomacy. (One argument would be that an attack on the holy city of Najaf would incite many people who are not pro-Sadr to become anti-American).
It seems the best that can be hoped for in Iraq is some kind of mullarchy. Perhaps a close cousin of the one in Iran? Perhaps, taking this even farther, the "official" government of Iran are the people to whom sovereignty over Iraq can be surrendered on June 30. Well, that would obviously not be acceptable to Syria, Turkey, or others.
At any rate, it doesn't look like the U.S. will carry out regime change in Iran any time soon. Could it be that both Iran and Syria are making more trouble today than they were in March 2003?
Update April 15: Now apparently Colin Powell has asked Syria for help in stabilizing a difficult situation in Iraq. (Via Atrios).
Update: AP story (Toronto Star) with details on the Iranian delegation as it moves from Baghdad to Najaf. Glenn Reynolds links to a Telegraph story saying it was the Brits who requested the Iranians get involved. Also some details in the AP/Star on a UN plan to get rid of the Governing Council and name a new one.
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