Islam + Democracy (Without Occupation)
Haroon Siddiqui in the Toronto Star:
"Yet with little or no American interference, Algerians, Indonesians and Malaysians are working their way through democracy to a moderate course away from past upheavals."
I'm not sure what's going on in all these countries. The U.S. may have been targetting Al Qaeda leaders in Indonesia. Things may not be as great in Algeria as Siddiqui says.
Still, there are very positive developments among large Moslem populations--in the direction of democracy, opposition to terror, and other good things as well--and they do not seem to depend on "regime change" driven by outsiders.
Thailand has complained that Islamic rebels/terrorists have had support in Malaysia; the Malaysian government has responded by joining in an anti-terrorist initiative.
Siddiqui also mentions positive developments in Turkey. In several cases, he stresses that it is a good thing when a pro-democracy, pro-Western, anti-terror government in Asia criticizes some of Bush's policies. For one thing, identifying or agreeing too closely with Bush seems to hurt almost anyone politically.
Update: Implications for Iraq? More or less following Mickey Kaus, why not try the Sistani option?
Meaning: hold elections as quickly as possible, despite being confident that there is no reliable census or voters' list, and the Shiites will win, will do things the Sunnis don't like, and will give the Grand Ayatollah, and perhaps other mullahs, something like a veto over legislation and major decisions. Democracy yes; getting the U.S. to a substantially reduced commitment in Iraq, with the result of more freedom to act in various theatres, yes; the golden vision that has been more or less promised, no.
This probably involves giving the UN more of a role than the Bush administration wants. See Kevin Drum here and here.
In favour of Bush scepticism: has there been a case where the UN has been really effective in wading in to and resolving an actual shooting war? I thought it was pretty well established that the UN is better at peacekeeping than at peacemaking.
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