Election in Canada? 

Election in Canada?

Some reports say Prime Minister Paul Martin is seriously thinking of calling an election before the summer.

None of his decisions or announcements since he became PM have amounted to much. Someone in the paper today mocked him for constantly promising change, and then saying something like "but we can't just talk about change."

He apparently hopes to present himself as a sober manager who won't take foolish risks--the former Finance Minister who cut spending, ran several surpluses, and only then cut taxes.

The sponsorship scandal from the Chretien years is brewing, but Martin keeps trying to say he wasn't involved. (That's what pretty well everyone who was involved is saying).

The Liberals may be ripe to lose, but is anyone ready to take over? Instead, we may have (once again) a strengthening of all our regional opposition parties. The main beneficiary of the scandal in Quebec is the Bloc Quebecois--a separatist party that wants to have seats in the national parliament.

The Conservatives may be as high as 30% nationally; the Libs about 40, with the NDP and Bloc at about 15% each.

My sense is that what the Americans call the "red state" vote--Republican, old-fashioned small town--exists in Canada, but isn't as large or influential as it is in the U.S. Stephen Harper of the Conservative party is aiming directly at that vote: more tax cuts, a stronger military, somehow save the truly essential government programs, especially health care. Leave social issues to a free vote in Parliament, while giving lots of hints that one is really a small-c conservative.

Does this win actual ridings in the suburbs, even in Alberta? I don't think so. I think Alberta votes for conservatives insofar as they stand for a kind of rebellion against a perceived Toronto establishment.