News from Iraq
I won't say much about the latest violence. I simply don't know much about what's going on. There was a line some time ago to the effect that suicide bombers are not likely to be Sunni or Baathist Iraqis; they are more likely to be foreigners or international terrorists. The "Al Qaeda" letter, if that's what it is, does seem to indicate there is an intention to prove democracy cannot work.
Politically, the big issues continue to be the extent to which the country will be guided by Islamic law; and the status of Kurdistan.
On Feb. 27, just after noon, Katherine Lopez posted as follows on The Corner:
"A source in Iraq reports:
The Iraqi Governing Council repealed decree 137 today (the controversial decree bringing in Sharia law passed in December. A group of women came in to lobby against decree 137. They presented their case to the Governing Council as to why Sharia discriminates against women.
The council vote to repeal decree 137 was passed by 15 in favor and 10 against (the full council of 25 was there). The women who had lobbied against decree 137 ululated and shouted for joy at the end of the vote.
In protest at their behavior, the following 8 IGC members walked out:
Ibrahim al-Ja'fari (Dawa Party, Shia Islamist)
'Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim (Scriri, Shia Islamist funded by Iran)
Muhammad Bahr al-'Ulum (Shia Islamist)
'Abd al-Karim Mahmud al-Muhammadawi (Shia, Hizbullah, aka Abu Hatem the Lord of the Marshes)
Ahmed Chalabi (INC)
'Izz al-Din Salim (Shia, Islamic Dawa of Basra
Ahmad Shya'a al-Barak al-Bu Sultan (Shia, Iraqi Lawyers union)
Salam al-Khafaji (Shia woman, ex-Baathist, replaced the late Aqila al-Hashemi)
Bremer then called off the meeting as there was no longer a quorum. To ease the tensions he invited the IGC to his residence for this evening's meal.
The 17 IGC members who had stayed in the room after the vote was taken went to Bremer's.
At present, the 8 named above who walked out in protest at the repeal of decree 137 are at Ahmed Chalabi's residence and are boycotting dinner with Bremer."
Later she corrected this (with a sigh of relief) to the extent of saying Chalabi was not at the meeting. (This would make 8 people who left).
Update March 8: Fred Kaplan in Slate says:
"A few days earlier, Chalabi's nephew, at his behest, had been one of seven Shiites who walked out of a session, in protest, after several women persuaded the council to drop a provision of the constitution that would have imposed religious rulings on family life."
More recently we have official news of a new constitution, to get the country through at least until there is a major convention in about a year.
"The council [IGC] agreed...to a bill of rights that protects freedom of speech, freedom of religious expression, freedom of assembly and due process.
"The constitution names Islam as 'a source' of legislation rather than the primary source - a compromise that is unlikely to end the struggle between the Shia and Sunni, who want to introduce sharia law, and secularists.
"Kurdish demands for federalism, to enshrine the autonomy they have in the north, were agreed in principle but the council did not specify the borders of a Kurdish region.
"The constitution also failed to resolve a dispute over sharing the presidency, saying only that there will be a president with two deputies. The Shia want the presidency to reflect their larger numbers, while the Sunnis and Kurds want it to rotate between the groups.
"The council also agreed to a 'goal' of filling 25 per cent of seats in a new parliament with women."
Power is somehow to be divided between a president and a prime minister--with the latter accountable to the elected assembly.
See also the Washington Post: there is still no agreement on an interim government to take over July 1.
The document is supposed to be signed tomorrow, and many details have not been released.
Kevin Drum says a lot could still go wrong but: "Still, once something gets written down it tends to become the baseline for further negotiation, so the interim constitution probably represents some real progress anyway. And getting the oil pumping and cutting down on coalition casualties is definitely progress."
Matthew Yglesias, commenting on the same Juan Cole post that Drum mentions, is more pessimistic. He suggests the draft constitution is a rush job intended simply to persuade the Americans it is OK for them to withdraw.
"Unfortunately, we're seeing a confluence of interests between the Bush administration and various internal groups that would like to undermine either the integrity or the democratic character of a future Iraqi state. Both just need to keep a lid on the situation for a few months yet so America can claim victory and go home before the real fights begin."
I don't know. I'm beginning to think there are signs here of Ahmed Chalabi working hard to bring Western-style democracy to his homeland. (Salim Chalabi, Ahmed's nephew, is mentioned by Cole, and in one news story he says "no one will have absolute power; we wanted to be sure of that.") Of course Chalabi the uncle may be in over his head, and he may be pursuing several agendas at once, but there is some hope here.
Update March 3: the signing is now scheduled for Friday--the delay caused by the terrible bombings on the weekend.
The much-discussed "Al Qaeda" letter is from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Kevin Drum notes, no doubt with a certain satisfaction, that the W. Bush administration has had several chances to take him out, and has chosen not to do so. (Link to NBC).
More surprising, the National Debate has put up a pretend page of NY Times corrections of mis-statements by their columnists. The spoof is serious in that they are apparently trying to state the correct facts in each case. This surprised me:
"A William Safire column entitled 'Found: A Smoking Gun' from February 11, 2004 cited an article, 'U.S. Says Files Seek Qaeda Aid In Iraq Conflict', which ran in The New York Times the previous day to assert a link between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. The article cited by Mr. Safire stated that the letter was not evidence of a link between al Qaeda and Ansar al-Islam. The same column also asserted that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as an 'Al Qaeda leader.' CIA chief George Tenet testified before the Senate intelligence committee in February 2003 that Zarqawi considered himself and his network 'quite independent' of Al Qaeda."
Daniel Pipes is worried that the draft constitution for Iraq establishes Muslim law. (Link via Hit and Run). Pipes welcomes the shift from saying the Sharia must be "the source" of law in Iraq to saying it is "a source." He is still worried, however, that no law will be allowed to conflict with the Sharia; and that this agreement is a mere "way station" until a more lasting agreement is struck, in any case.
Update March 5: Josh Marshall addresses the question why the Bush administration would deliberately leave al-Zarqawi alive in the months leading up to March 2003. There were two "official" rationales for the invasion of Iraq: WMDs, and links to Al Qaeda and hence 9/11. If they eliminated the individual who provided the most plausible (although still questionable) link to Al Qaeda, this would leave less of a rationale for invading.
To repeat, it is still far from clear what has been going on with al-Zarqawi. It seems unlikely rather than likely that Ansar al Islam was working closely with Al Qaeda before March 2003. It is not clear who is responsible for recent bombings in Iraq. Marshall points to the possibility that al-Zarqawi is not even alive.
And of course, the signing of a new (interim) constitution has been delayed indefinitely. (Link from The Corner). The 5 Shiite members of the IGC (including Ahmed Chalabi) have refused to sign because of the continuing issue of whether the Kurds will have a veto over the final constitution, and something about the powers of the president and two vice-presidents.
I'll repeat my suggestion: rather than let a regionally concentrated minority hold up proceedings now, promise them a kind of permanent veto, at least on some matters, once a permanent constitution is established. An upper house could treat regional minorities as equals, while a lower house is based on rep by pop.
Update March 6: The Globe and Mail has an AP story saying Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani specifically does not want the Kurds to be able to veto a permanent constitution; he or someone sympathetic to him has raised the question "how can a non-elected body set up a new elected body?"; and he wants a five-person rotating presidency, with three Shiites, one Sunni and one Kurd.
Update: March 8: The Interim Constitution has been signed, although Ayatollah Sistani still has concerns. This has to be regarded as another success for Bush.
Somebody on the web (I forget who) said Bremer and the Bush Administration are not really in the driver's seat--they are just taking any deal they can get to stick to the July 1 deadline. The Globe and Mail reports that in Basra, and the Shiite south generally, militias are growing in power.
Fred Kaplan notes that Ahmed Chalabi is much friendlier to Sistani than he used to be--probably because Chalabi is widely unpopular, and Sustani has demonstrated his ability to turn big demonstrations on--or off.
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