Updates on Al Qaeda
1. Letter (apparently authentic) from an Al Qaeda operative (not an Iraqi) inside Iraq. He is seeking help from headquarters--the mountains straddling Afghanistan and Pakistan--in stirring up trouble in Iraq. If he gets help in attacking the Shiite majority, this could "rally the Sunni Arabs to the religious extremists." Sectarian violence is the best hope of ensuring the U.S. occupation fails. (Link via Instapundit; also on Drudge).
This individual needs help, and soon, because in fact the U.S. occupation is going fairly well (from the U.S. point of view). Once there is an all-Iraqi police and security force, and elections, the new order will be stable and popular, and there will be little opportunity for Al Qaeda action.
Glenn Reynolds says: "Short version: 'Al Qaeda is losing in Iraq.' Yes. And Bush defenders have been correct that some of violence in Iraq comes not from Iraqis, resisting the occupation like freedom fighters, but from international terrorists. This individual, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, says he has personally directed 25 suicide bombings, and he speaks of having some associates who have presumably carried out more.
On the other hand: This document also raises questions about what the Bush administration has said and done. NY Times: "The document would also constitute the strongest evidence to date of contacts between extremists in Iraq and Al Qaeda. But it does not speak to the debate about whether there was a Qaeda presence in Iraq during the Saddam Hussein era, nor is there any mention of a collaboration with Hussein loyalists."
The Al Qaeda group in Iraq seems small and weak. Where is there a strong, effective Al Qaeda force? Back in Afghanistan, where the U.S. stopped fighting, except on a very small scale, some time ago. The key to public opinion in Iraq, according to this letter, is to have an all-Iraqi police and security force. Family relationships and friendships will gather a lot of public support around such a force. One of the first acts of the U.S. occupation was to disperse such a force.
So: Al Qaeda is being stopped in Iraq by a combination of U.S. determination and Iraqi public opinion. These suicide bombers may fail in their efforts, and they may be stopped. But one headline, somewhere, might read: "U.S. action created opportunity for (at least) 25 suicide bombings in Iraq."
2. Al Qaeda may have nuclear weapons--acquired from Ukraine.
3. There are still signs of independent terrorist movements in many different countries.
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