Dominoes falling in Middle East? 

Dominoes falling in Middle East?

There are indications that things are going Bush's way--and not only in Iraq:

Syria (via Instapundit) may be forced by popular resistance to leave Lebanon. There may be increasing pressure for democracy in both Lebanon and Syria itself.

(See Michael Young on Hit and Run).

Comparisons to 1848 (via Corner)? Fall of the Berlin Wall?

Walid Jumblatt, the patriarch of the Druze Muslim community and, until recently, a man who accommodated Syria's occupation, is starting to hope for, and expect democracy--even in Egypt. He gives credit to Bush.

I read "liberal" or "leftie" blogs every day, and I must say: they just don't seem to know what to say. Even if Bush is a fool, and good outcomes are a matter of dumb luck, how can you not celebrate the spread of democracy?

I don't buy the "anti-American left" talk. I think intellectuals have been committed to peace and diplomacy for a long time. In their view, war can only make things worse; the world as a whole will become more peaceful, as long as we rely exclusively on peaceful means.

These people, admittedly, have been known to swing harder to the left. People as we see them are not prepared to become sheep grazing in a meadow. They have antiquated notions (no doubt put in their heads by the forces of reaction) about personal property and family life, honour, things you might fight for. So we have to carry out, well, purges, to bring about "socialist man" or something. Communists always intend to be non-violent, honestly, but somehow wherever they gain a lot of power, millions die.

Left wing intellectuals might hate their parents and traditions more than they hate any foreigner or enemy--because old-fashioned people didn't believe in being "open to everything," and any lingering old-fashioned beliefs might be the very things that stand in the way of peace.

Bushies are saying that old-fashioned national security is not obsolete--hatred of people who are true enemies is not a bad thing, and war is sometimes both necessary and desirable.

I'll try to spell this out further, but I'm thinking now: the left identifies with the last man, at least some of the right identifies with the second last man. One more big war, then we can all be hippies.

UPDATE: Bush also deserves credit for reminding Putin of the importance of democracy. Like all leaders, Bush will have to make some accomodation in his pursuit of liberty to work with less than perfect allies; but he may make it clear he doesn't like it, and he expects history to move toward democracy not away from it.

UPDATE: Feb. 26 4:30 pm EST: Bush is also putting pressure on Egypt. Things are happening fast: the LAT says today: "most Middle Eastern autocrats... [snip]... may hold elections — but only for positions on powerless parliaments or councils." Yet within the last few hours:

In a surprise and dramatic reversal, President Hosni Mubarak took a first significant step Saturday toward democratic reform in the world's most populous Arab country, ordering the constitution changed to allow presidential challengers on the ballot this fall.

An open election has long been a demand of the opposition but was repeatedly rejected by the ruling party, with Mubarak only last month dismissing calls for reform as ``futile.''

The sudden shift was the first sign from the key U.S. ally that it was ready to participate in the democratic evolution in the Middle East, particularly historic elections in Iraq and the Palestinian territories. Mubarak's government has faced increasingly vocal opposition at home and growing friction with the United States over the lack of reform.

``We have moved a mountain,'' said Rifaat el-Said, leader of the opposition Tagammu party. ``This should open the gate for other democratic reforms.''