Turnout in Iraq 

Turnout in Iraq

I mentioned to my class last night that it is difficult to believe specific or precise turnout numbers for the Iraq election. My understanding is that there has not been a real census in the country for decades. Even the usual figures for the whole population--60% Shiite, 20% Sunni Arab, and 20% Kurd--are estimates at best. Who would have a list of eligible voters? Yet we are told that there was exactly 57% turnout--a comparison of the actual votes counted to...what, exactly?

And then I get home and read this (via Alterman).

Finally, on Thursday night, John F. Burns and Dexter Filkins of The New York Times reported that Iraqi election officials have quietly "backtracked, saying that the 8 million estimate had been reached hastily on the basis of telephone reports from polling stations across the country and that the figure could change."

Then, in Friday's paper, Burns and Filkins noted that one election commision official was "evasive about the turnout, implying it might end up significantly lower than the initial estimate." They quoted this official, Safwat Radhid, exclaiming: "Only God Almighty knows the final turnout now." They revealed that the announcement of a turnout number, expected to be released this weekend, has been put off for a week, due to the "complex" tabulation system.

I'll be delighted if that figure, when it is officially announced, exceeds the dubious numbers already enshrined by much of the media. But don't be surprised if it falls a bit short. The point is: Nobody knows, and reporters and pundits should have never acted like they did know when they stated, flatly, that 8 million Iraqis voted and that this represents a turnout rate of about 57%.